As many of you know, Metro’s COO Michael Jordan released his “2010 Growth Management Assessment” report recently, which essentially begins Metro’s required process to analyze the amount of land available for growth, look at what will be needed for the next 20 years, and determine what capacity for residential and industrial/commercial land can be accommodated within the current UGB, and where expansions might be needed to make up for any deficiency.

Mr. Jordan’s report is 77 pages long (and can be viewed at:  http://library.oregonmetro.gov/files//2010_growth_management_assessment.pdf).

In a nutshell, the report states that there is enough land within the UGB to accommodate expected housing and job needs if the population growth falls within the lower end of the projected range that their modeling program (Metroscope) lays out.  The only exception is a definite need for large site industrial parcels (50 acres or more), which has an identified need of 310 acres.  The report does, however, recommend that the Metro Council should consider the likelihood that population growth will exceed the low end projections.

He also identifies five areas that he believes should be front runners for consideration for residential land IF (and that’s a big IF) the Metro Council agrees to plan for a greater need of land.  The total gross acres of these five areas is 2,658.  Most of the areas are on the west side: 1) The Advance area (Wilsonville); 2) the West Sherwood area; 3) the Cornelius South area; 4) the South Hillsboro area; and, the only one on the east side, 5) the Maplelane area (Oregon City).  The report details why these five areas are the best suited for selection out of a total 8,300 acres that Metro reviewed for possible expansion areas.

This does not mean any of those areas will actually be brought into the UGB.  The Metro Council may decide less land should be added, or no land added, this go around.  They will have a tougher case justifying no land, however, especially given the desires and amount of work that the cities of Hillsboro and Cornelius in particular have put into in seeking more land for jobs and housing growth.  The Metro Council also may or may not view the areas Mr. Jordan recommends as the top ones for consideration.